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ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENTS AND FORECASTING
RELIABLE FIGURES FOR YOUR WIND POWER PROJECTS, FROM STUDY TO OPERATION.
This service is designed to support our clients at every stage of their wind energy projects, from initial assessment to re-evaluation of operational wind farms.
ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENTS AND FORECASTING
OUR OBJECTIVES
Provide a rapid, independent assessment of a site's wind potential prior to launching in-depth studies, in order to inform investment decisions.
Conduct comprehensive yield studies for wind farms under development, determining gross, Net P50 and P90 yields, which are essential for project bankability.
Ensure the quality and integrity of measurement data collected on site, quickly identifying anomalies and guaranteeing a reliable basis for future yield studies.
Provide an independent and rigorous review of existing yield studies, often as part of technical due diligence, to validate the compliance and relevance of the analyses.
Reassess the energy potential of operational wind farms, using actual operating data to determine new long-term production over 10 or 20 years and the associated uncertainties (P90)
HOW WE WORK
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
PRE-ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION POTENTIAL
- Objective: Rapid assessment of a site’s wind energy potential.
- Methodology: Site modelling, estimation of uncertainties (P90) and technical losses (P50). Use of 10-minute data developed by VORTEX (LES); for projects in France, possibility of using our internal resources based on several years of wind farm studies.
- Deliverable: Pre-estimation report on wind potential.
MEASUREMENT CAMPAIGN MONITORING
- Objective: To ensure the quality and reliability of measurement data for the upcoming production study.
- Methodology: Bi-weekly monitoring of data collection via connection to the logger. Alerts on identified anomalies for rapid intervention. Adaptation of scripts in R for greater efficiency.
- Deliverable: Monthly reports presenting the measured parameters (sensor time series, distribution and Weibull curve, wind roses, turbulence intensity).
PRODUCTION STUDY
- Objective: Conduct a comprehensive study for parks under development, determining gross production, Net P50 and P90.
- Methodology:
- Data processing: Long-term correlation using MCP (Measurement-Correlation-Prediction)
- Removal and reconstruction of erroneous or anomalous data.
- Modelling: Digital terrain modelling, simulation using Wasp/Meteodyn WT.
- Data: Use of measurement campaigns (weather mast, lidar, Sodar), with data availability >90%.
- Comparison with long-term reference stations (Météo France, Merra2, ERA5, Vortex).
- Site parameters: Integration of topography (IGN maps, RGE ALTI 5m) and roughness (Corine Land Cover).
- Estimates: Calculation of gross yield and wake effects, estimation of technical losses.
- Uncertainties: Calculation of P50/P90 uncertainties based on the quality of the measurement campaign, the accuracy of the terrain modelling and the application of technical losses.
- Deliverable: Complete energy yield study report (gross production, Net P50 and P90, wind speed maps).
PRODUCTION STUDY REVIEW
- Objective: To provide an independent review of an existing production study, often as part of technical due diligence (TDD).
- Key checks:
- Compliance of the measurement mast installation with the IEC standard.
- Relevance of the correlation with long-term wind data.
- Adequacy of the modelling methodology for the complexity of the site. Correct application of clamping plans and assessment of technical losses.
- Consistency of net annual production estimates (P50, P75, P90). Accuracy of long-term uncertainty estimates.
- Deliverable: Review report with colour-coded validation of analyses.
RE-EVALUATION OF ENERGY POTENTIAL
- Objective: To re-evaluate the energy potential of operational wind farms (minimum 1 year of operation), often for refinancing or acquisition purposes.
- Methodology:
- Combination of SCADA data and neural networks to obtain a gross P50 without wake effect.
- In-depth processing of SCADA data.
- Long-term correlation with reference data (ERA5, MERRA2, Vortex).
- Determination of new long-term production over 10 years, 20 years.
- Assessment of uncertainties and determination of P90.
- Rigorous validation process including cross-validation, MCP metrics and figures, MCP wind rose correction, long-term homogeneity, modelling quality and actual vs. modelled power curves.
- Deliverable: Energy potential reassessment report with revised P50 and P90 over 10/20 years.
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KEY FIGURES
Ability to carry out bankable studies with 8 months of measurement data (minimum)
Requirement for measurement data availability of over 90% for studies
Determination of production over 10 years, 20 years for operational wind farms
ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENTS AND FORECASTING
OUR EXPERTISE
- Wind engineering: Advanced modelling (Wasp/Meteodyn WT).
- Data science and statistics: Data processing and analysis, long-term correlation using MCP, script development using R.
- Climatology and meteorology: Interpretation of sensor data (wind, turbulence), use of long-term reference data (Météo France, Merra2, ERA5, Vortex).
- Artificial intelligence: Application of neural networks for the analysis of production in operational wind farms.
- Standards and Regulations: Knowledge of standards (e.g. IEC for the installation of measurement masts).
- Geomatics: Use of topographical data (IGN, RGE ALTI) and roughness data (Corine Land Cover).
WHY CHOoSE US?
Specialised and recognised expertise
in wind energy potential assessment, from development to operation.
Personalised approach
that can be adapted to the specific characteristics of each project, whether in the initial phase, under development or in operation.
Advanced and innovative methodologies
such as the use of neural networks for improved production forecasting for existing wind farms.
Independent and rigorous team
ensuring the reliability of your data and the credibility of your studies, which is essential for investment and financing decisions.
In-depth knowledge
of the French context, complemented by the use of international reference data (Merra2, ERA5, Vortex).
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